The $92 Million Lesson: How the Blue Jays Rode Internal Development—Not Big Signings—to the ALCS
One of the loudest ovations erupting from the Rogers Centre crowd as lineups were introduced Sunday prior to Game 1 of the ALCS was reserved for a key supporting actor: first-year Toronto Blue Jays hitting coach David Popkins.
The former Driveline Baseball client played a key role in helping the club from a last-place finish a year ago, 20 games behind the Yankee in the standings, to an AL East title this year.
Savvy Jays fans understand this.
The Jays also advanced to their first ALCS appearance in a decade.
What was remarkable was not just the improvement but how it was accomplished.
Yes, the Blue Jays made some major offseason additions in hopes of upgrading their lineup from a year ago, a group that had been in multiple-year decline from its 2021 slugging prowess.
The club signed Anthony Santander to a five-year, $92-million deal in an effort to import middle-of-the-order thump. Toronto also made a trade to acquire the elite glove of Andrés Giménez, who is locked into a long-term deal.
But those headline-grabbing upgrades had a negligible impact on their 2025 season.
Santander struggled in an injury-plagued first year in Toronto. He hit six home runs over 221 plate appearances (62 wRC+) after smashing 44 homers for Baltimore the previous season.
Giménez was also limited to 101 games due to injury.
They combined for 0.1 fWAR.
So, how did the Blue Jays get to the ALCS? Most of the Blue Jays’ improvement was tied to internal growth, major improvement from holdover players.
As a group, the Blue Jays ranked second in position player fWAR (32.6) this season, and fourth in wRC+ (112). That marks a giant leap from 2024 when they posted respective marks of a 21 fWAR and 101 wRC+. That improvement is equivalent to a surplus value added approaching nine figures.
The Blue Jays’ roster includes eight players who made at least 200 plate appearances this season and last, comprising the majority of the club’s plate appearances. Two other players – Tyler Heineman, who trains with Driveline, and posted a career-best 120 wRC+ this season – and Nathan Lukes, are notable holdovers though they didn’t meet the playing time criteria.
Among those eight returning, regular contributors – seven improved from a year ago – and those seven improved significantly, each by at least 23 wRC+ points.
The only qualifying player that did not improve was Vladimir Guerrero Jr., but he still posted an elite 137 wRC+ mark.
This was not a roster that benefited from the age curve as it moved from an average weighted age of 28.0 years last year to 28.1 years thus year. The Blue Jays, individually, had generally reached their physical primes. Most underlying physical skills peak in a player’s early-to-mid 20s.
One of the most unlikely breakout stories of the 2025 season was that of George Springer, who in his age 36 season this year improved to the 72nd percentile in bat speed compared to the 53rd percentile last season. That is an outlier improvement.
Overall, the Blue Jays tied for the sixth-greatest improvement in team bat speed year over year, from 70.7 mph to 71.5 mph.
And that improvement accelerated late in the year as the team bat speed averaged 71.8 mph in August and 72.2 mph in September, which ranked 12th in the majors. They were trending up.
The Blue Jays ranked 27th in the majors in bat speed in 2024.
What is also interesting is that because bat speed declines with age, this suggests there was a real change in process, and a real buy –in from players.
Closely related to bat speed — exit velocity — also improved among many returning Blue Jays.
Toronto had four of the top 70 year-over-year exit velocity improvers in MLB: Addison Barger (13th overall at +3.4 mph), Springer (36th at +2.4 mph), Davis Schneider (52nd at +2,1 mph) and Bo Bichette (70th at +1.8).
What changed?
While it’s difficult to isolate such improvements to only one thing, the Blue Jays introduced a new variable immediately after last season: Popkins.
Writing for theScore (Toronto) last summer, I investigated the Blue Jays’ offensive struggles.
There was a lack of urgency to change processes at the major league level last season. Many hitters’ underlying skills were trending in the wrong direction. Last season, the Blue Jays ranked in the lower third in a number of metrics, including a key underlying offensive skill that can improve with age: air-pull percentage.
Presented the club’s poor air-pull % ranking last summer, I asked former Blue Jays infielder Justin Turner his thoughts.
Turner, an air-ball OG, offered a two-word response: “Not good.”
This season? The Blue Jays improved from 155 pulled home runs to 186. That’s the equivalent of adding a hidden, 31-homer slugger.
As an organization, Toronto has made significant investment in player development staff and tools throughout its organization in recent years.
The Jays have made significant investments in the infrastructure, especially at their Dunedin, Fla complex and at the Rogers Centre. They have added personnel like senior hitting biomechanistic Ben Jones, a former Driveline staffer, who helped accelerate our programs. Over the previous two off-season’s, the Jays had sent five minor leaguers to work at Driveline facilities.
Popkin’s became a key part of translating these efforts at the MLB level.
As a professional player, Popkin’s trained at Driveline. He was and remains curious. He’s bought into best practices in training and teaching, from building bat speed to better swing decisions.
"I think in the past, it took months for them to kind of fix my mechanics, for him it takes him two days..."
Daulton Varsho speaks on the impact @BlueJays hitting coach David Popkins has had on his approach throughout the season.@jonmorosi | #ALCS pic.twitter.com/6eBo00HQdJ
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) October 12, 2025
Consider what he told SportsNet on intent, which has had an impact on the Blue Jays’ improvement.
“It’s just the freedom to let guys take aggressive swings when they want to take aggressive swings,” Popkins said. “It’s OK to miss, it’s OK to chase when you’ve earned the count or the scenario where you can get your best swing off and the situation calls for it.
“A lot of guys, they get into situations and are afraid to be embarrassed by swinging and missing or chasing a bad pitch, and their swings get a little more reserved; they don’t allow themselves to be the dangerous athletes that they are. We let guys fail, we let guys work through certain things and with that you get aggressiveness, you get fearlessness. That’s what I think we’ve been seeing.”
Intent is a big part of training, of the Driveline philosophy.
It underlies bat-speed and bat-path regimens, and just about anything we do in the gym and batting cages. The best teachers and teams understand this as well.
Blue Jays infielder Ernie Clement is one of the year-over-year gainers for the Blue Jays. He’s transformed himself from a glove-first utility player into an everyday contributor.
”It goes back to the intent,” Clement told SportsNet. “We are not letting them get us out on a pitcher’s pitch in the first couple of pitches. If I get out on a fastball down the middle on the first pitch, I am OK with that. That’s my intent. But if I ground out on a pitch that’s two balls off the plate outside, that’s not doing anybody any good.
“So, I just think we have a really good understanding of the zone, and we’re just a bunch of grinders grinding out long at-bats, really making starting pitchers work.”
The Jays have proven you can just do things and get results.
Such improved processes helps players improve in ways that were once thought impossible, even at advanced ages like Springer (or Nolan Arenado or Mookie Betts, who each train with Driveline).
And such player development advances can help just about everyone within an organization.
It is great for clubs as it adds value to the roster through means other than expensive external improvements via trade (prospect cost), or free agents (payroll cost) – and it’s also advantageous for players as they improve their abilities and future earning potential in arbitration and/or free agency.
Popkins and the 2025 Blue Jays are a notable example of how quickly player development changes can make a difference.
Sometimes it can make all the difference.
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