Comments on: Making the Sabermetric Argument for Increasing Fastball Velocity http://www.drivelinebaseball.com/2012/05/12/making-the-sabermetric-argument-for-increasing-fastball-velocity/ Elite Velocity Development Tue, 25 Nov 2014 20:33:10 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=4.0.1 By: Chris Sherwin http://www.drivelinebaseball.com/2012/05/12/making-the-sabermetric-argument-for-increasing-fastball-velocity/#comment-17965 Mon, 11 Nov 2013 19:09:00 +0000 http://www.drivelinebaseball.com/?p=1711#comment-17965 Great work as always Kyle! That was a hell of an interesting read.

]]>
By: The $400,000 Mistake – Eric Wedge | Kyle Boddy http://www.drivelinebaseball.com/2012/05/12/making-the-sabermetric-argument-for-increasing-fastball-velocity/#comment-11145 Thu, 18 Apr 2013 09:56:17 +0000 http://www.drivelinebaseball.com/?p=1711#comment-11145 […] I’ll work for far less than $400,000 per game. And if I get your pitchers throwing harder, that’s worth a few million bucks. Just […]

]]>
By: Episode 15 – Josh Reddick’s Hair Is An Old Bay Sausage | Tarp Talk: An Oakland A's Podcast http://www.drivelinebaseball.com/2012/05/12/making-the-sabermetric-argument-for-increasing-fastball-velocity/#comment-5122 Tue, 15 May 2012 20:47:05 +0000 http://www.drivelinebaseball.com/?p=1711#comment-5122 […] The articles that Kyle references: Fastball Velo […]

]]>
By: Sabermetrics Says Throw Harder | The Pitching Blog http://www.drivelinebaseball.com/2012/05/12/making-the-sabermetric-argument-for-increasing-fastball-velocity/#comment-5103 Sat, 12 May 2012 13:52:25 +0000 http://www.drivelinebaseball.com/?p=1711#comment-5103 […] http://www.drivelinebaseball.com/2012/05/12/making-the-sabermetric-argument-for-increasing-fastball-… […]

]]>
By: drivelinekyle http://www.drivelinebaseball.com/2012/05/12/making-the-sabermetric-argument-for-increasing-fastball-velocity/#comment-5102 Sat, 12 May 2012 10:58:00 +0000 http://www.drivelinebaseball.com/?p=1711#comment-5102 Givens:
Pitcher X
FIP Constant 3.12
Pitcher is a right-handed starter
Peripherals: 24 GS, 255 FB, 28 HR (11% HR/FB), 50 BB, 2 IBB, 7 HBP, 120 K (7.2 K/9), 150 IP (6.25 IP/start) – 5.02 FIP 
Park Factor = 100 (neutral)
League Average FIP = 4.80
Replacement Level Win% for Pitcher = 38%

Improvements:
86 MPH -> 90 MPH (4 MPH difference)
0.165 * 4 = 0.66% decrease in HR/FB (http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/does-fastball-velocity-influence-a-pitchers-hrfb-ratio/)
0.316 * 4 = 1.264 increase in K/9 (http://bezdomnybaseball.blogspot.com/2010/02/how-do-you-know-hes-unhittable.html)
10% reduction in FB rate (http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2010/12/23/1890969/ground-balls-and-pitch-speed-what-should-we-expect-to-see-from)

Hold constant:
-Innings Pitched, Games Started (likely would go up if he was more successful)
-Walks, HBP, IBB (unknown how this would change, though BB+HBP would likely go up slightly)

New peripherals:
24 GS, 230 FB, 24 HR (10.34% HR/FB), 50 BB, 2 IBB, 7 HBP, 141 K (8.464 K/9), 150 IP (6.25 IP/start) – 4.39 FIP 

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/war/calculating-war-pitchers/
Value (WAR/$):
((((18-IPstart) * LgAvgFIP + (IPstart * FIP))/18)+2)*1.5
((11.75 * 4.80 + 6.25 * 5.02)/18)+2)*1.5
47.925
2.6625 + 2 = 4.6625 (runs to wins converter- TangoTiger)
6.99375 runs per win environment

4.80 lgFIP – 5.02 FIP = 0.22 runs worse per nine innings than league avg FIP
-0.22 / 6.99375 = 0.0314
0.500 – 0.0314 = .4686 (46.86% win%)
win% – replacement win % 
.4686 – .380 = 0.0886 wins better than replacement every nine innings

wins rate * IP / 9 = WAR
0.0886 * 150 / 9 = 1.476 WAR
$5MM * 1.476 = $7.38MM starting value

New Value (WAR/$):
((11.75 * 4.80 + 6.25 * 4.39)/18)+2)*1.5
9.986 runs per win environment

4.80 lgFIP – 4.39 FIP = 0.41 runs better per nine innings than league avg FIP
0.41 / 9.986 = 0.0410
0.500 + 0.0410 = .541 (54.1% win%)
win% – replacement win %
0.541 – .380 = 0.161 wins better than replacmeent every nine innings

wins rate * IP / 9 = WAR
0.161 * 150 / 9 = 2.683 WAR
$5MM * 2.683 = $13.42MM ending value

]]>